The Government of Alberta released a probable, and elevated COVID-19 case scenario for the province.
“Our per capita number of recorded infections is the second-highest in Canada after Quebec. That’s because of our brilliant scientists and lab techs conducting one of the highest levels of COVID-19 testing in the world,” said Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
“Naturally, we identify more cases, and that’s a good thing because it’s helped us to track close contacts of those who are infected, which in turn limits the spread,” he added.
Although the curve in Alberta resembles the countries that have successfully fought COVID-19, the modelling data done by Alberta Health showcases that the province is not out of the woods yet.
“Things could get much worse if we fail to follow the public health orders around social distancing, and personal hygiene,” Kenney said.
Two models were presented, a probable scenario, and an elevated scenario.
“Under the probable scenario, we now project that Alberta will hit the peak of infection in mid-May. From the beginning of the outbreak to the end of the summer we could see as many as 800,000 infections, and between 400 and 3,100 deaths,” Kenney said.
The elevated scenario projected that the peak of infections could be in the beginning of May, with as many as 1 million infections, and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
“I know that these numbers can be overwhelming, but these models are not a done deal. I want Albertans to see them as a challenge, perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation,” Kenney said.
“Those numbers are not inevitable, how this actually plays out, how many people are infected, how many people die, and whether we overwhelm our health care system, all depends on us and our choices and that means rigorously following simple basic rules,” he said.
With no social distancing or public health orders in place, exports projected that in a worst-case scenario there could be as many as 1.6 million infections, 32,000 deaths in Alberta, and as many as 640 deaths per day.
“Our health system would collapse under the weight of that chaos. Albertans will not let that happen, period,” Kenney said.
“We simply cannot risk letting the virus loose in Alberta, that would create a public health catastrophe, which would force an even more stringent lockdown in the future,” he said.
Adding, “Our strategy to defeat the coronavirus is to push down that peak of infection as much as we can while pulling up the capacity of our health care system to cope.”
There is a possibility the current public health orders may have to be in place until the end of May.
“As hard as this will be, it’s the only ethical choice when thousands of lives are at risk,” Kenney said.
The Government of Alberta has given Alberta Health Services (AHS) $500 million for the fight against COVID-19.
“We will spare no expense to prevent the spread while providing the best possible care to those who need it,” Kenney said.
“Thanks to our front-line health workers, and those who support them, we are expanding the capacity of our hospitals, opening up more acute care beds, Intensive Care Units (ICU) and ventilators,” he said.
Adding, “We are confident that our health care system will be able to cope and that we’ll have the supplies on hand to get the job done.”
